WITH KEY BATTLEGROUND DISTRICT ANALYSIS IN OH-01
After an eventful election campaign period over the past several months, Joe Biden has officially been named the 46th President of the United States. As expected, the victor took significantly longer to call than any routine election. Mail in voting was the cause for this substantial delay as ballots were counted day in and day out for nearly two weeks after election night.
Notwithstanding former Vice President Joe Biden winning the presidency, there were several surprising key takeaways from this election that, despite a loss in the Whitehouse, the Republican Party should establish a certain degree of pride in. To begin, not only did the Republican Party avoid a net loss of seats in the House of Representatives, they actually managed to gain a net 10 seats as of this writing (November 20th 2020), and succeeded to maintain control of the Senate (Enten, 2020). Donald Trump also gained a notable amount of support in the Latino community in states like Florida and Texas. In comparison to the 2016 election, he gained as much as 11 points in various south Texas counties that are occupied by a significant number of Texas’ Latino voters. This came as a surprise to Democrats given President Trump’s response to immigration along the southern border, and the record high unemployment rates nationwide. Similarly, Trump also gained nearly 200,000 more votes in Miami-Dade County, Florida; a region that typically expresses an outpouring of support for Democrats (Ramos, 2020). These events, among others, portrays an unexpected level of support for the Republican Party that polls could not predict.
Regarding the election outcome in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District, the Republican incumbent House Representative, Steve Chabot, won re-election with over a 7% margin. This is nearly a 3% increase from the midterm election in 2018, suggesting a clear increase in support among voters in OH-01. This district includes residents from both Warren County, and Hamilton County, Ohio. These two counties convey very different results, as Donald Trump and Joe Biden handily won Warren, and Hamilton county, respectively. Ohio’s 1st Congressional District includes the entirety of Warren County, and only parts of Hamilton County which can loosely justify the Republican Party’s success in the district. The presidential voting trends in Ohio mirror the typical result nationwide, with rural towns demonstrating strengthened support for Republicans, and similarly, urban cities supporting Democrats (CNN, 2020). The presidential electoral map for the state of Ohio is predominantly painted red apart from urban areas such as Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, and Toledo that remain blue. This likely stems from demographical differences, with emphasis on employment differences. Western rural Ohioans would likely express greater concern for their fracking jobs, where there was overwhelming support for Trump along the border of Pennsylvania and West Virginia (FracTracker, 2018).
To analyse further, regional results can be observed in Ohio at state level. To begin, an interesting statistic that showed up on exit polls was income distribution in Ohio and how the election results were allocated. A poll conducted by CNN on election day reported that 55% of voters that earn less than a $50,000 salary voted for Joe Biden, and 53% of voters that earn more than $50,000 annually voted for Donald Trump. Likewise, 80% of voters that felt as though the condition of the nation’s economy is poor voted for Joe Biden, and 85% of voters that felt as though the condition of the economy is good voted for Donald Trump. This is noteworthy because voters that support Donald Trump in Ohio are both better off financially and see the economy as more stable and intact than Joe Biden’s supporters. Furthermore, Donald Trump performed significantly better among the suburbs of Ohio based on this poll, with 52% of voters from suburban areas voting for him as opposed to 47% for Joe Biden (CNN, 2020). The suburban and rural regions of Ohio exemplify nearly three quarters of the population sampled, which could be a strong representation of Trump’s support in the state overall.
Ultimately, the results of the election in comparison to my prediction before polls closed were comparatively similar. Notably, I predicted that Donald Trump would win the state of Ohio, as he did in 2016 against Hillary Clinton. The reasons for this prediction stemmed from the polling errors made in 2016 in contrast to the results, paired with the image that the Republican Party had conveyed overall in Ohio throughout this presidential term. The COVID-19 pandemic had undoubtedly been the most prominent event that pertained to the election, and one of the key issues that voters saw as important in their own lives. The Republican Governor, Mike DeWine had been praised continually for his response to the virus, and the way that the state had facilitated lockdowns and voiced concern for public health (Staff, 2020). Nevertheless, at a district level I was remiss when I predicted that Republican incumbent Steve Chabot would win by a tossup margin. My analysis largely stemmed from the blatant lack of endorsements that Chabot received during the campaign. His opponent, Kate Schroder was recognized by countless notable organizations, and both current and former politicians. Much of her support derived from her tireless work in the healthcare industry, something that would be expected to hold bearing in the unprecedented time that we are experiencing regarding public health (Schroder, n.d.). Nonetheless, Ohio’s 1st Congressional District once again placed their trust in the hands of Steve Chabot to continue his career in representing the constituents in the House of Representatives. While my final election predictions for the state of Ohio were correct, the result in OH-01 came as a surprise and will undoubtedly act to further deteriorate the credibility of polling data during a United States election. It is an assumption that moving forward, polling companies will adjust their methods of conducting polls to better indicate the true outcome of an election.
REFERENCES
2020 House election results. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/house
Enten, H. (2020, November 14). How Republicans pulled off a big upset and nearly took back the House. Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/14/politics/house-republicans-elections-analysis/index.html
FracTracker Alliance, Auch, T., FracTracker, I., & Jackson, E. (2020, October 08). Ohio Content. Retrieved from https://www.fractracker.org/map/us/ohio/
Meet Kate. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.kateforcongress.com/about
Ohio 2020 House election results. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/ohio/house/district-1
Ohio 2020 President exit polls. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/ohio
Ohio’s 1st Congressional District election, 2018. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio’s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2018
Staff, T. (2020, September 24). Poll: 72% of Ohioans approve of Gov. Mike DeWine’s handling of coronavirus. Retrieved from https://go.tiffinohio.net/2020/09/poll-72-of-ohioans-approve-of-gov-mike-dewines-handling-of-coronavirus/ Ramos, E. (2020, November 18). Where did Trump make election gains? Unemployment data tell a surprising story. Retrieved from https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/where-did-trump-make-election-gains-unemployment-data-tells-surprising-n1247935
McMillan Research 