The 2019 Canadian federal election is under a month away, and from the way I see it, this will be an incredibly tight race. Polling data shows a neck and neck race in a number of ridings across the country between the Liberals and Conservatives. Many Liberal seats will be lost to Conservative candidates, and many Conservative seats will be lost to Liberal candidates. There are a few ridings I would like to focus on specifically, and I will get to that later on in the article.

First, I would like to talk about the effect that Trudeau’s blackface had on the polls. Prior to these images surfacing last week, Trudeau’s Liberals held more than an 80% chance of winning the election according to various studies compiled by 338 Canada. Most analysts would have made the assumption that Trudeau had taken a safe lead over Scheer’s Conservatives, and they were on their way to winning a majority government. It took a couple days for the polls to take a hit on a national level, but early this week the odds had tightened up as Trudeau lost an abundance of his support, that dropped his odds of winning the election down to 51%, according to 338 Canada. The photos went viral just days after surfacing online and opposing parties have not been shy in running attack ads on Trudeau’s Liberals since the day the race began.

Now to return to what I was talking about in the first paragraph, there are a number of ridings I would like to review, and these are going to be the areas I will be watching the closest on election night. First is the Cambridge riding in Ontario. This seat, previously held by Liberal MP Bryan May, has been neck and neck for awhile now and just this week the Conservative candidate Sunny Attwal has taken a very narrow lead. Though this is riding is still a toss up, it is definitely one to keep an eye on. The second riding is Burlington, also in Ontario. Also previously held by Liberal MP Karina Gould, the riding is a toss up as the Conservative candidate Jane Michael is creeping up on Gould in the polls. This will be one to watch on election night as it could be another lost riding for the Liberal Party. Finally, the prairies seem to remain a Conservative stronghold, as it appears that the Conservatives may win every single seat in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The only riding that may hold that back would be Regina-Wascana in Saskatchewan. The lead is very narrowly held by the Liberal incumbent MP Ralph Goodale but may be lost to the Conservative candidate Micheal Kram who is not far behind. There are many ridings that are close calls that I will mention in later forecasts, and these are the reason that this election is far too close to make any concrete predictions on whether Scheer or Trudeau will take the victory.

If the election was held today, it would be neck and neck right down until the end, but I predict that Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives would take a minority government and would also win the popular vote by an incredibly narrow margin. Trudeau’s popularity is astonishingly low for an incumbent leader at this point in their first term. This leads me to believe that as far as polling can go, there is a margin of error for a reason, and I predict that the Conservatives hold an underlying lead in support at this time.

References

Regina–Wascana (Saskatchewan). (0AD). Retrieved from http://338canada.com/districts/47009e.htm.

Saskatchewan, 14 districts. (0AD). Retrieved from http://338canada.com/districts/saskatchewan.htm.

Alberta, 34 districts. (0AD). Retrieved from http://338canada.com/districts/alberta.htm.

Cambridge (Ontario). (0AD). Retrieved from http://338canada.com/districts/35016e.htm.

Burlington (Ontario). (0AD). Retrieved from http://338canada.com/districts/35015e.htm.

Poll Analysis and Electoral Projections. (0AD). Retrieved from http://338canada.com/.

Akin, D. (2019, January 1). ANALYSIS: This election year, volatile electorate could bedevil Trudeau’s Liberals, Scheer’s Conservatives. Retrieved from https://globalnews.ca/news/4804817/analysis-volatile-electorate-trudeau-liberals-scheer-conservatives/beta/?utm_expid=.kz0UD5JkQOCo6yMqxGqECg.1&utm_referrer=https://globalnews.ca/news/4804817/analysis-volatile-electorate-trudeau-liberals-scheer-conservatives/.