With Canadians losing faith in Justin Trudeau to govern the country, the question arises of what will happen this fall in the federal election? Polls suggest that Jagmeet Singh’s NDP’s are not seen as a viable alternative and will likely be incapable of clinching themselves a victory come October. The fate of the Liberal government appears to be in the hands of the swing voters. Polls continue to show a tight margin between the Liberals and Tories despite the degree of criticism that Trudeau is facing amid the SNC-Lavalin scandal.

There are two likely scenario’s that I can see as the election is just around the corner, both dependant on the next moves of the Prime Minister:

The first, and unlikely scenario of Justin Trudeau cutting his losses within the next month and resigning from Prime Minister would likely give the Liberal Party enough time to appoint a new leader and rebuild enough credibility and trust from their supporters to hold Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives back from a majority win. The result would depend on what Trudeau’s successor can bring to the country. A success would be a re-election of the Liberal government. At this point, I do not expect a re-election, however it is a result that is possible.

The second, and more likely scenario that would involve Justin Trudeau sticking out the remainder of his term would involve a majority win for Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives. Trudeau would have to trust himself after all that has happened and put his own best interests ahead of that of the nation, and continue to govern, and the way things are headed now, likely significantly damage the Liberal Party of Canada. The campaign would involve a great deal of criticism to Trudeau from the opposing parties regarding his latest scandal, and the majority of the nation will decide he is no longer fit to govern, and the victory would be Andrew Scheer’s.

I am predicting a significant win for the Conservatives this fall. Andrew Scheer will spend the majority of his campaign raising awareness of Justin Trudeau’s flaws, and the country will likely buy it. One major factor holding back the victory of the Conservatives is the risk of the People’s Party of Canada splitting the vote. Party leader, Maxime Bernier left the Conservative Party last year in the hopes of creating a party that will bring back real Conservative values. If this splits the right-wing vote, the majority of votes could go to Liberal or NDP candidates, stripping Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives of much needed votes.

References

“Conservatives Take SlightLead over Liberals in Latest Nanos Tracking Poll.” CTVNews, 5 Mar. 2019,www.ctvnews.ca/politics/conservatives-take-slight-lead-over-liberals-in-latest-nanos-tracking-poll-1.4323137

RobertsonMore, Craig, andCraig Robertson. “PEOPLE’S CANDIDATE: Our Sit-down Interview with MaximeBernier.” Toronto Sun, 15 Feb. 2019,torontosun.com/news/national/peoples-candidate-our-sit-down-interview-with-maxime-bernier