The Canadian Liberal government has run head first into some road blocks recently with unfortunate timing given the federal election just around the corner. Some may relate the downfall of the Liberals to the Liberal party of Ontario before the last provincial election. Kathleen Wynne had made her share of moves that resulted in rage from her opponents, and discomfort from her supporters. Her party crumbled in the election, winning so few seats in Ontario that they were stripped of official party status.

Politics in Ontario, and in Canada’s federal government often appear to have a “teeter totter” effect, in regard to the cycle of left-wing, and right-wing parties taking power. In Ontario, for example, Mike Harris’ PC government was swept by Dalton McGuinty’s Liberal party in the 2003 provincial election. Harris had served 2 terms, and Ontario citizens had clearly had enough. 

Jump ahead 15 years later, Kathleen Wynne, after serving 5 years as Premier of Ontario as McGuinty’s successor, has put the province way behind on their books, and had clearly shown her determination to work with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to implement a provincial and federal Carbon Tax. Her party crumbled during the 2018 election campaign period and ended up handing the PC’s a majority government.

This can be compared on a federal level as well, after Brian Mulroney essentially disassembled the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada after his resignation from office in 1993, handing power to interim leader Kim Campbell. The party proceeded to lose 154 seats that fall, when Jean Chrétien was elected Prime Minister. It took another 13 years for Stephen Harper’s new Conservative’s to win a minority government in 2006 and defeat the Liberals.

Watching the back and forth movement that is displayed from the Canadian and Ontario governments, it raises the question of whether this will occur during the 2019 federal election this fall. Has Canada had enough of Justin Trudeau’s scandals, and his infamous carbon tax? If Trudeau is not re-elected, this will be the shortest federal term served by a Liberal leader since his dad, Pierre Elliott Trudeau served his last final 4-year term after defeating Joe Clark’s Progressive Conservatives in 1980.

Dropping approval ratings amid the SNC-Lavalin scandal proves that Trudeau is not as popular as he was upon taking office in 2015. This could cost him the next election and introduce a long journey for his team to rebuild the Liberal Party.

References

Seoni, R. (2018, June 15). Election analysis: Where did all the Liberal votes go in the Ontario election? Retrieved from https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election-analysis-where-did-all-the-liberal-votes-go-in-the-ontario-election-1.3974414

Kalvapalle, R. (2019, March 04). Most Canadians side with Wilson-Raybould, believe Trudeau has lost moral authority to govern: Ipsos poll. Retrieved from https://globalnews.ca/news/5021267/trudeau-approval-rating-snc-lavalin-wilson-raybould/